Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Numbers Don't Favor Mandel
* Numbers guru, Nate Silver, has the following information posted at his NYTimes blog -
FiveThirtyEight:
....Another group of states, however, are more clearly disappointing for Republicans. Foremost among these are Ohio and Florida, where the polls have shifted sharply toward the Democratic incumbents, Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson, in recent weeks.
Mr. Brown and Mr. Nelson each lead by seven to eight points in the average of recent polls, an advantage that is much more difficult to overcome with 50 days left in the race. Historically, candidates trailing by that margin come back to win the race only about 10 percent of the time.....
....Mr. Mandel’s ideology rates as being strongly right-leaning — this race features perhaps the largest ideological gulf of any major contest this year — and Mr. Brown has also raised a significant amount of money....
This information follows the fact that Josh Mandel's in-laws have contributed to Sen. Sherrod Brown's campaign. See the New Republic for the story.